Portrait Drip Explained: How AI Picks the Best Solar Homes

Most solar lead generation treats every homeowner in a zip code as an equal prospect. Sun Pilot's Portrait Drip system was built on the premise that they're not equal — that some homeowners are 10x more likely to install solar than others, and that identifying them precisely before spending marketing dollars is the difference between a profitable outbound program and an expensive one.

Portrait Drip combines satellite-based property analysis, multi-source data enrichment, and machine learning propensity modeling to score every property in a solar installer's territory — and then activates only the highest-scoring homes with personalized, property-specific mailers that show each homeowner their own roof with solar panels rendered on it.

The Problem Portrait Drip Solves

Traditional solar prospecting has a fundamental inefficiency: you're paying to reach everyone, but only a small fraction will ever go solar. Of any 100 homeowners in a typical suburban zip code:

• ~30 are renters (not prospects at all)
• ~15 already have solar (confirmed via permit records)
• ~10 have roofs facing north or heavily shaded (poor solar candidates)
• ~12 have roofs too small for a meaningful system
• ~8 have roofs that are too old and will need replacement before solar is viable
• ~5 are in financial situations inconsistent with a $25,000 purchase
• That leaves approximately 20 genuinely viable prospects out of 100 properties

If you mail 100 pieces at $1.50 each ($150 total) but only 20 were ever viable, your effective cost per viable prospect is $7.50, not $1.50. Portrait Drip's targeting focuses spend on those 20 — or better, on the 10 who are both viable AND showing strong purchase intent signals.

The Six Signal Categories

Portrait Drip's propensity model integrates six categories of property and demographic signals:

The Propensity Score and What It Means

Every property in the target geography receives a composite score from 0–100. The score is calibrated against historical installation data — meaning a score of 80+ means the property has a profile statistically similar to homes that have converted to solar at significantly above-average rates in comparable markets.

Portrait Drip typically targets properties scoring 65+ for standard campaigns and 80+ for premium campaigns with the highest personalization level. In a typical 50,000-home service territory, this filters to approximately 8,000–15,000 high-propensity prospects — a dramatically smaller, higher-quality target pool than blanketing the entire zip code.

The Render: Why Personalization Is the Breakthrough

Scoring identifies who to target. The render determines whether they respond.

For each targeted property, Portrait Drip generates a photorealistic AI render showing that specific home with solar panels placed on the actual roof geometry. This is not a generic solar home image — it uses the property's real satellite imagery, actual roof dimensions, and optimal panel placement calculated by Google Solar API integration.

The render process:

1. Google Solar API provides roof segment data: orientation, pitch, usable area, and shading analysis for each roof plane
2. The AI places panels on the optimal roof segments following industry standard setback rules
3. A generative image model composites the panel placement onto the satellite imagery with realistic lighting, shadow rendering, and panel reflection
4. The result is a satellite top-view render and (where satellite oblique imagery is available) a 3D drone-perspective render

The render appears on the front of the postcard alongside estimated savings numbers specific to that property's size, utility territory, and sun exposure.

The Drip Deployment Strategy

Portrait Drip is designed as a continuous weekly drip rather than a one-time blast. Benefits of drip over blast for solar:

• Consistent lead flow: 10–30 qualified responses per week rather than 80 responses in week 2 and zero the rest of the quarter
• A/B testing: Weekly cohorts can test different creative, different offers, different QR landing pages to optimize continuously
• Seasonal concentration: Program weight can shift to peak seasons (spring, early fall) when homeowner solar interest is highest
• Territory management: Installers with exclusive territory arrangements benefit from not over-saturating any neighborhood at once, preserving response rates

The Digital Bridge: QR to Personalized Report

Every postcard includes a unique QR code that links the homeowner to their personalized Sun Pilot analysis report — a full digital experience showing their home with solar, their estimated savings, panel count, system size, and payback period. The report includes the installer's logo, contact information, and a prominent "Request a Free Quote" CTA.

This digital bridge serves multiple functions:

• Provides tracking — every QR scan is a trackable digital event that tells the installer which addresses are engaging
• Extends the sales conversation — homeowners who scan and read the full report are substantially more educated prospects than those who just see the postcard
• Creates a shareable asset — homeowners can forward their report link to a spouse, a sibling, or a neighbor
• Reduces the "I need to think about it" barrier — the homeowner has already done much of their research before talking to the installer

Results from Portrait Drip Deployments

Metric	Generic Direct Mail Baseline	Portrait Drip (AI-targeted)
Response rate (call or QR scan)	0.6–1.2%	2.8–5.5%
Qualified appointment rate	35% of responders	58% of responders
Close rate (appointment to contract)	15–20%	22–32%
Cancellation rate (post-signature)	18–25%	8–14%
Net cost per install	$3,500–$12,000	$600–$2,200

The lower cancellation rate from Portrait Drip is particularly significant: homeowners who receive a personalized, data-backed postcard with their specific home's analysis have made a more considered decision than those who were cold-called or door-knocked. The consideration quality translates to fewer regretted decisions.